A player’s pre-match rating and the opponent’s pre-match rating produce the expected chance of winning.
Opponent-adjusted resultsSteddy
Steddy
Rating
Who has earned the strongest results? Every win and loss is valued by the opponent’s rating at the time of the match.
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Version 1 methodology
One result. One expectation.
This is the standalone test model. It has not yet been inserted into Power+ or Form+.
A win scores 1, a loss 0 and a draw 0.5. The gap between actual and expected determines the movement.
Competitive setting and later, generally longer rounds receive a modest reliability adjustment. Opponent quality still does the heavy lifting.
The raw rating is standardized against the qualified active field. A 110 is one standard deviation above that field.
Expected = 1 ÷ (1 + 10((opponent rating − player rating) ÷ 400))
New rating = old rating + K × (actual result − expected result). Qualification requires ten matches, three events and eight main-tour matches in the rolling year. The full historical archive seeds opponent strength.